Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations: From Strategic Patience to Strategic Recalibration

This analysis by Dr. Tughral Yamin, Senior IPS Associate, examines Pakistan-Afghanistan relations amid growing tensions over terrorism, border management, trade, refugees, and diplomatic mistrust. The policy insight explores the limitations of military pressure and the need to balance deterrence with dialogue, respect for sovereignty, and economic interdependence. It also assesses Afghanistan’s expanding regional relationships and China’s potential role in facilitating engagement. Importantly, the insight advocates reviving the Urumqi process as a standing trilateral framework focused on counterterrorism, border management, trade, migration, and regional connectivity, providing both sides with a diplomatic pathway toward managed strategic coexistence.